Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Climate is too complex to model

The atmosphere is too complex to model. Particularly, predicting large changes involves larger uncertainty. James Lewis at American Thinker found this. The research was done by two University of Washington professors, Gerald Roe and Marcia Baker.
"Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades." (Italics added).
"... it is evident that the climate system is operating in a regime in which small uncertainties in feedbacks are highly amplified in the resulting climate sensitivity. We are constrained by the inevitable: the more likely a large warming is for a given forcing (i.e., the greater the positive feedbacks), the greater the uncertainty will be in the magnitude of that warming." (italics added)
And the publishers of New Scientist magazine allow Miles Allen and David Frame put the conclusion:
"Atmosphere: Call Off the Quest." "An upper bound on the climate sensitivity has become the holy grail of climate research. As Roe and Baker point out, it is inherently hard to find. It promises lasting fame and happiness to the finder, but it may not exist and turns out not to be very useful if you do find it. Time to call off the quest." (Italics added)
Back to American Thinker:
End of story --- at least among scientists with a shred of integrity left. The science establishment will have a big black eye from this outrageous fraud for years to come. Global Warming will go down in history along with "cold fusion" and other science fables that fooled some of the people some of the time. Except that in this case, the scientific establishment allowed itself to be taken for a long and very expensive ride

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