Bet on price of oil

Prices are arbitrated in the market place. Now we have an interesting "market" for oil. John Tierney of the New York Times doesn't agree with the pessimistic forecast of Matthew Simmons, an investment banker and expert on the oil market. Tierney put his money where his mouth is. He challenged Simmons to a bet on the price of oil in 2010, that it would not rise as much as Simmons projected. Here is Tierney's version in the International Herald Tribune.

After reading his prediction, quoted Sunday in the cover story of The New York Times Magazine, that oil prices will soar into the triple digits, I called to ask if he'd back his prophecy with cash. Without a second's hesitation, he agreed to bet me $5,000. His only concern seemed to be that he was fleecing me. Mr. Simmons, the head of a Houston investment bank specializing in the energy industry, patiently explained to me why Saudi Arabia's oil production would falter much sooner than expected. That's the thesis of his new book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. I didn't try to argue with him about Saudi Arabia, because I know next to nothing about oil production there or anywhere else. I'm just following the advice of a mentor and friend, the economist Julian Simon: if you find anyone willing to bet that natural resource prices are going up, take him for all you can. Julian took up gambling during the last end-of-oil crisis, in 1980, when experts were predicting a new age of scarcity as the planet's resources were depleted by the growing population. Julian had debunked these fears in The Ultimate Resource, the bible of Cornucopian economics, which showed how human ingenuity had kept driving down the price of energy and other natural resources for centuries. He offered to bet the pessimists that oil or any other resource they chose would be cheaper, in real terms, at any date they picked in the future. The ecologist Paul Ehrlich, author of "The Population Bomb" and "The End of Affluence," took up his offer and chose copper, tin and three other metals worth $1,000 in 1980. When the famous bet was settled 10 years later, the value of the metals had declined by more than half. As usual, people had found new ways to get the metals as well as cheaper substitutes, like the fiber optic cables that replaced copper telephone wires.

The blog at Laissez Faire Books does a good summary.

Hawaii - Senators Inouye and Akaka on the defensive

Update on the Akaka Bill in the US Senate Senator Inouye staring at the headlights. The Honolulu Star-Bulletin on 8/22 shows the locals what he has been doing 5,000 miles away. They give Inouye's side first. But then they give the floor to ex-Senators Gorton and Brown, as I covered before, and they overpower Inouye's weak "I didn't intend to mislead them." Inouye promised in 1993 that he was not leading to a race-based government, but he was. But the Star-Bulletin tells half of the truth about Senator Akaka saying on NPR that this bill could lead to Hawaii seceding from the United States. They report his denial, but not what he said:

Those who doubt this only have to listen to Sen. Akaka himself, who acknowledges that his bill would open a can of worms. On Monday, National Public Radio reported the Senator as saying that the sovereignty granted Native Hawaiians in the bill "could eventually go further, perhaps even leading to outright independence." Sen. Akaka was quoted as adding: "That could be. That could be. As far as what's going to happen at the other end, I'm leaving it up to my grandchildren and great-grandchildren."

Yes, I am bothered by this bill about how Hawaii is governed. I like Hawaii and want it to stay a state of the US. I think this bill would both be bad for Hawaii and a bad precedent, leading other racial groups to demand their own enclave to govern.

Discovery Institute in the New York Times

Discovery Institute in Seattle is in the news - the front page of the New York Times Sunday and Monday. Discovery is not a one-song band; it has wide interests. Its Cascadia Project is proposing solutions for regional transportation problems. There is a program on technology with star George Gilder. Our friend James Na is a fellow in foreign policy. And more ... But the NYT is very concerned about the Center for Science and Society and its work in intelligent design.

Pushing a "teach the controversy" approach to evolution, the institute has in many ways transformed the debate into an issue of academic freedom rather than a confrontation between biology and religion.

The NYT discovered that Discovery is interested in some issues and has programs based on them and raises money to carry out the programs. Surprise. I spend money on what I am interested in also. They found only one clearly liberal donor that stopped giving and that might have been for one the of other programs. The others have stayed on. Discovery President Bruce Chapman gives his analysis of the NYT research and story. Has Discovery carried out research? Yes. Has its fellows published books? Yes - Link Have they published papers in peer-reviewed journals? Yes Link James Na summarizes it well:

The actual Discovery policy position, however, is very mild: it wants schools to teach evolution as the dominant paradigm, but also wants the pupils to be exposed to some of the scientific gaps and problems associated with the evolutionary theory, which is invariably taught in schools as an almost god-given truth. It does NOT support mandating the teaching of intelligent design.

Market Solutions for Automobile Guilt

Online! After several frustrating weekends the wifi internet access at our weekend cabin is working. Beach blogging today. Are you feeling guilty about driving your SUV? Or your 4-door sedan? Come on, every vehicle emits CO2. And if you believe that global warming is caused by you, then you should feel guilty about the damage you are creating. Several companies have arrangements where you can buy someone else's right to emit CO2. If your household emits 50 tons of CO2 per year, then you can buy off other parties for an equivalent 50 tons of CO2, so the net effect is zero emissions. Slate Online has an article describing the process and the companies. Via new blogging friends at Democracy Market in California.

The nonprofit Carbonfund is one group that buys credits, which represent the right to emit a given quantity of greenhouse gases, on a market called the Chicago Climate Exchange. The companies listed on CCX, all of whom have voluntarily agreed to emissions reductions, buy and sell pollution rights to one another as a cost-effective means of meeting their targets. Carbonfund buys credits from companies with low emissions and then "retires" them. Instead of a company buying credits so they can continue to pollute, Carbonfund tears them up and that much less fuel gets burned.

Another approach is to directly underwrite CO2-saving energy research and use.

TerraPass, a for-profit group cooked up by a Wharton professor and his students, is one of many ventures that sell you the chance to offset your fossil-fueled existence, either by underwriting non-fossil power or by paying for pollution reductions. NewWind Energy, for instance, uses your guilt money to make wind power available to power companies at prices that are competitive with fossil fuel-based energy sources... [NWE] charges about $37 to cancel out a ton of CO2 emissions.

The Slate author calculated that his household emits 50 tons of CO2 per year. The cheapest trade he found was Carbon Source for $5.50 per ton. So he can face his friends for only $274 per year. One caution, in a market you have to trust your trading partner to carry out his side of the deal. Can the nonprofits/companies cheat? Yes, they can. So there needs to be some auditing and spreading the word about who carries through and who doesn't. Good intentions only get you so far when you have to implement your promises. And outside of cheating, sometimes it's hard for your partner to implement your lofty ambitions. The Dutch have found great frustrations in paying a Brazilians landfill to burn methane. I covered this in "Gallant Effort for Kyoto" Oh, and for that guilt. If you go with TerraPass you get a neat bumper sticker to put on your gas guzzler! Added. I like TerraPass's blog's analysis of MBTE. Congress decreed that MBTE be added to gasoline. Then it was found that MBTE was getting into water tables all over the country. So of course the people who demanded that MBTE be mandated tried to blame the pollution of the water on the oil companies. But the companies had just followed the law. Congress is to blame. Good news: in this year's energy bill Congress took some responsibility by allowing protection to the oil companies against law suits. But step back. If Congress has said to reduce which-ever exhaust pollutant and left it to the oil companies to find the solution there would have been two big effects. 1- To the greenies delight, they could blame the e-e-evil oil companies. 2- The oil companies could have looked at alternate ways of getting the required reduction. And among the alternates, when one turned out to have side effects, they could have gone with another solution = the Market Way.

Europe Stagnation - Steyn

So you want zero population growth? Then move to the former East Germany. They have negative population growth! Negative growth costs. And there are fewer people to pay, so the costs can't be spread and hit the dwindling few very hard. Cost more? Listen to Mark Steyn interviewed by Hugh Hewitt:

You know, East German towns have been emptying, depopulating so fast that the sewer systems don't run properly. They've had to spend money...you know, when people talk about spending money on infrastructure, we normally think it means building bigger and more efficient...bigger, modern sewer systems, that can cope with more. Here they're actually having to dig them up and make the pipes smaller to enable them to flow. I mean, this isn't...you know, we worry about sustainable growth. Europe has to cope with sustainable lack of growth.

This is just one example of the costs that the people of Europe have to face - they haven't yet.

Well, I think you're in one of these situations where the people aren't quite ready to swallow the bitter medicine. So if you say to them, are you prepared to take...to have fewer paid vacations per year, you know, these paid holidays that seem extraordinary to Americans, where you basically gets weeks and weeks off each year, paid for by your employer, they're not yet ready to give those up. They're not yet ready to give up the cradle to grave welfare. And the question is, how much of this bitter medicine are they prepared to swallow? Or do they want to push it even further to breaking point, because they've got terrible, terrible difficulties ahead of them.

Yes, he said "push it to the breaking point." I don't take any pleasure in Europe's stagnation getting worse. But for the Europeans' derision of the backward United States, we are dealing with growth; they have no growth and aging populations that expect to work short hours and retire early. It's going to break. I prefer the problems of growth. Steyn's web site.

Hawaii regresses to racial government

All the forces of Hawaii converged to get the US Congress to allow race-based government in the currently 50th state. To allow such a government requires setting aside our US Constitution and our civil-rights laws. The Akaka Bill classifies citizens by race, defying the express provisions of the 14th Amendment. Slade Gorton of Washington was a senator when a previous bill passed. He says this bill breaks promises that Senator Inouye made in 1993 when a resolution for apology was passed. Wall Street Journal - this one is free!

The Apology Resolution distorted historical truths. It falsely claimed that the U.S. participated in the wrongful overthrow of Queen Liliuokalani in 1893. The U.S. remained strictly neutral. It provided neither arms, nor economic assistance, nor diplomatic support to a band of Hawaiian insurgents, who prevailed without firing a single shot, largely because neither the Native Hawaiian numerical majority nor the queen's own government resisted the end of the Hawaiian Kingdom. The queen authored her own ouster by planning a coup against the Hawaii Constitution to recapture monarchical powers that had been lost in a strong democratic current. She later confided to Sen. George Hoar that annexation to the U.S. was the best thing that could have happened to Native Hawaiians. The resolution falsely asserted that the Kingdom of Hawaii featured a Native Hawaiian government exclusively for Native Hawaiians prior to the 1893 events. In fact, the kingdom was a splendid fusion of both native and nonnative elements in both government and society. The definitive historian of the kingdom, R.S. Kuykendall, elaborated: "The policy being followed looked to the creation of an Hawaiian state by the fusion of native and foreign ideas and the union of native and foreign personnel, bringing into being an Hawaiian body politic in which all elements, both Polynesian and haole, should work together for the common good under the mild and enlightened rule of an Hawaiian king." The apology falsely declared that Native Hawaiians enjoyed inherent sovereignty over Hawaii to the exclusion of non-Native Hawaiians. To the extent sovereignty existed outside the monarch, it reposed equally with all Hawaiians irrespective of ancestry. The apology falsely maintained that Native Hawaiians never by plebiscite relinquished sovereignty to the U.S. In 1959, Native Hawaiians voted by at least a 2-to-1 margin for statehood in a plebiscite. Finally, the Apology Resolution and its misbegotten offspring, the Akaka Bill, betray this nation's sacred motto: E pluribus unum. They would begin a process of splintering sovereignties in the U.S. for every racial, ethnic or religious group traumatized by an identity crisis. Movement is already afoot among a few Hispanic Americans to carve out race-based sovereignty from eight western states because the U.S. "wrongfully" defeated Mexico in the Mexican-American war.

Now is not the time to regress to race-based government. And the Senate should surely reject a bill that is based on a list of untruths. I don't see how Gorton and Brown believe that Daniel Inouye is a man of integrity. The bill hasn't passed yet, but the vote will be soon. My previous post in July See Hawaii Reporter for the views of Hawaiians. Also Grassroot Institute of Hawaii.

Stop this trade war

Our president is speaking double again. In one week he turned from strong trade advocate to protectionist. Three weeks ago Bush put great effort into pushing CAFTA - Central American Free Trade Agreement - through Congress. (I call this a trade agreement, not free trade, because it is not free; it is very managed trade. But it is trade.) Then last week Bush turned around and violated NAFTA by rejecting the ruling against the US in the matter of soft-wood imports from Canada. The ruling by a 3-person arbitration panel requires the US to return the tariffs collected - about $5 billion. How can Bush push new trade agreements when he violates the ones already in place? He pandered to the steel-producing states in 2001 by placing a tariff on imported steel at great cost to manufacturers of steel products and consumers. Now he is doing it again.

We Lose

Homes will be more affordable when this tariff is finally gone. The American Homeowners Alliance estimates that it will reduce the construction cost of a new home by $1,000 on average. That will make about 300,000 more moderate-income families eligible to own. President Bush should welcome the ruling for its benefits to consumers and to the economy. And, incidentally, he should appreciate that the NAFTA trade agreement is working as it should. And to make the bad news worse, the Bush administration is proposing to double the damage to consumers, demanding that Canada impose a tax on lumber exports so prices rise here. I sure don't understand. The Wall Street Journal has an excellent editorial on this on August 15, but it requires a paid subscription.

9/11 Coverup by The 9/11 Commission

The 9/11 Commission that was set up to discover what was behind the 9/11 coordinated attack hid critical information. Mark Steyn covers the recent disclosure.

"If you want to know everything wrong with the 9/11 Commission in a single sound bite, consider this from Al Felzenberg, its official spokesman, speaking Wednesday: ''There was no way that Atta could have been in the United States at that time, which is why the staff didn't give this tremendous weight when they were writing the report. This information was not meshing with the other information that we had.''

The 9/11 Commission covered up the fact that military intelligence had found Mohammed Atta over a year before the 9/11 attack.

In fairness to Felzenberg, he was having a bad week, and a hard time staying on top of the commission's ever-shifting version of events. It emerged that the U.S. military had fingered Mohammed Atta -- the guy who plowed Flight 11 into the first World Trade Center tower -- well over a year before before 9/11. Or as the Associated Press puts it: "A classified military intelligence unit called 'Able Danger' identified Atta and three other hijackers in 1999 as potential members of a terrorist cell in New York City."

The shifting story:

At first, the commission denied that it knew anything about "Able Danger": "The Sept. 11 Commission did not learn of any U.S. government knowledge prior to 9/11 of surveillance of Mohammed Atta or of his cell," insisted Lee Hamilton, the Democratic co-chair. "Had we learned of it, obviously, it would've been a major focus of our investigation." But within 48 hours this version was non-operative. As the AP subsequently reported: "The Sept. 11 Commission knew military intelligence officials had identified lead hijacker Mohamed Atta as a member of al-Qaida who might be part of U.S.-based terror cell more than a year before the terror attacks but decided not to include that in its final report, a spokesman acknowledged Thursday." So, far from being a "major focus" that they just happened to miss -- coulda happened to anyone -- it turns out they knew about it but "decided not to include" it.

Why did the 9/11 Commission hide this critical information? Because Jamie Gorelick was the person who erected the wall between law enforcement and the military, preventing them from sharing information. And Gorelick was appointed to the 9/11 Commission by the Democrats. So she was in the place to prevent the disclosure of what she did - how Gorelick prevented the use of information that could have saved lives. Steyn covers it very well. Though some more of the story has come out since his article.

Gallant effort for Kyoto

The Dutch are actually making an effort to meet some of the Kyoto goals. Other countries have made little or no progress, all but abandoning the goals.

NOVA IGUACU, Brazil -- In a big dirt pit here, workers wearing protective masks piled rocks around cement columns jutting up from rotting trash. Some 6,000 miles away, Dutch officials awaited word of their progress. The Brazilian workers and the Dutch government have been brought together in an unusual partnership by the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty under which most industrialized countries, other than the U.S., have pledged to reduce their global-warming emissions by 2012. The workers are building a modern landfill, a rarity in the developing world. The columns are part of a system to capture methane from the city's decomposing rubbish before it wafts up into the atmosphere. Methane is a particularly potent global-warming gas; by burning it, and thus converting it into a less-potent gas, carbon dioxide, the landfill will significantly reduce its output of global-warming pollution. That makes this garbage pile a gold mine in a new international market: the buying and selling of greenhouse-gas emission "credits." Each credit that a buyer in the industrialized world purchases from a seller in a developing country reduces the buyer's obligation to clean up its act back home. In theory, the system will reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases by sending money from industrialized nations to developing ones to tackle projects that otherwise wouldn't have gotten off the ground."Just by flaring methane," explains Pedro Moura Costa, a 41-year-old Brazilian-born scientist who founded EcoSecurities Ltd., the company behind the gas-recovery operation, "you're creating a lot of credits." The Netherlands agreed under Kyoto to cut its greenhouse-gas emissions 6% below 1990 levels by 2012. Cutting a ton of emissions in the Netherlands is expensive: about $25 to $50, Dutch officials estimate. So for half their planned cuts, the Dutch shopped around mostly in developing countries for cheaper deals. Here in Nova Iguaçu, they've agreed to buy as much methane as this landfill is expected to snag -- for $4.15 per ton.

But now they get off track:

"We never can reach this target by doing things at home" exclusively, says Maurits Blanson Henkemans, the Dutch economic ministry's senior official on climate issues..

Yes, they could do it at home - by reducing their economy. From all evidence that is what the Kyoto architects intended - to save the earth by shutting down the United States' economy, and incidentally one or two other advanced countries. And notice that they are not getting rid of CO2, but methane.

So far, the results aren't encouraging. Renewable-energy projects recently have been producing only about a third of the credits sold on the international market, according to a report from the World Bank, one of the market's biggest boosters. The problem is that CO2-reducing projects are proving less desirable to credit buyers than projects that go after more-potent, but less prevalent gases. A project that avoids the emission of a ton of CO2 produces just one credit. But, because scientists say a ton of emitted methane does as much damage to the planet as 21 tons of CO2, a project that cuts a ton of methane generates 21 Kyoto credits.

The results are mixed. They are burning methane and getting credits for it. But not as much as expected and the finger pointing begins. Scientist Moura Costa says the landfill operators are relying on seepage of the methane, but they should get serious about extracting and install pumps, etc. And they expected to be generating electric power by now, but they are not. The Wall Street Journal has the story. Subscription required, I am afraid.

Lying about Judge Roberts

NARAL Proabortion is running ads that lie about Judge Roberts, the Supreme Court nominee. At the Wall Street Journal Manuel Miranda has the correction. And Annenberg's Fact Check.org has the facts. "NARAL Falsely Accuses Supreme Court Nominee Roberts" We have to get the word out about every lie and distortion against this fine man.

Truth about Hillary

Finally a day less than 85F in the coastal mountains of BC. I quickly read The Truth About Hillary by Edward Klein. He paints the picture through the book of the kind of person she is - controlling, win at any cost, any cost, left-wing. He points out many lies she has told. But I am bothered by the lies he doesn't correct. I was there the day in July or August, 1994, when Hillary brought her big-brother health-care program to Seattle. The response in Seattle put a substantial dent in the cake walk she expected. The day before in Portland, Oregon, the federal workers came out by the hundreds to cheer her. But, stroke of luck, her event in Seattle was on a Saturday so the civil "servants" weren't there - only the people who made an effort were there. That included 2 or 300 conservative talk-radio listeners. The spirited opposition in Seattle was reported across the country and similar groups met the queen at every stop and had a strong impact. Hillary says that people tried to keep her from talking. Wrong. There was good-natured opposition with signs and a welcome Bronx cheer, but no effort to shut her up. Hillary says that there was violence and weapons were being taken off of people. The report of violence wasn't made until about Wednesday by a poor source - Senator Pattie (that's what she calls herself) Murray. There was no eye witness on Saturday or Sunday or Monday or Tuesday. Weapons - one guy got stopped with a fire arm. He was walking along the street and had no idea that the secret service was there for the First Lady. He had noting to do with the conservative turn out. I am trying to recall one other non correction. Later. Ignore the spin against Klein's book. It is a good, quick read.

Excluding God from business

I am still in Canada Nortel Networks Corp of Canada fired its CEO Gary Daichendt for praying. Daichendt told colleagues that he had prayed with his wife for guidance the night before an important decision.

That statement became a defining moment in Mr. Daichendt's stormy, short-lived tenure at Nortel... [T]his devout Christian from California has been portrayed in the press as a religious zealot who not only talked about prayer but also told the Nortel board he had a message from God to depose the incumbent CEO. Mr. Daichendt adamantly denies he made that divinely ordered power play, but concedes "I prayed with my wife. That's a true statement because I am a man of faith.

Daichendt is not reported to have proselytized his coworkers. Higher ethics are now demanded from corporate officers

but not necessarily more religion. Yet it is hard to disentangle the two. Mr. Daichendt was welcomed into troubled Nortel because he was grounded in strong ideals...

Well it is a complete package. If you welcome a Christian for his strong ideals don't be surprised at his faith. And it makes no sense to fire a leader for using his strength - his faith. Toronto Globe and Mail, Monday 8/8/2005, page B10. I can't find it online, but here is the Globe and Mail.

Hiroshima Saved Lives

On vacation at Whistler, BC, Canada in an internet cafe with a view of The Mountain itself: People are wringing their hand over the "terrible" thing president Harry Truman did when he used atomic bombs against 2 Japan cities 60 years ago. Japan was preparing to defend their homeland. The invasion was expected on the southern island of Kyushu and they were beefing up the defenses. Japan was on the run; they had lost most - all? - of the land they had captured. So strategic defeat had been accomplished. But the war machine was continuing to fight. The military leaders estimated that it would cost 1,000,000 Allied lives, mostly American, and every more Japanese lives. A large number of kamikaze planes were prepared which can take a large toll on a ship with just one airplane. And, regarding the numbers of dead in the two cities, a number several times their sum had already been lost to Allied bombing of Japanese cities. So why kill more? Because the stunning power of the one bomb delivered by one airplane would shock the Japanese military into realizing they could not outlast the US. The best suggested alternative was a demonstration blast over an uninhabited area. But we only had two bombs and as we saw one was not enough. So it was right to use both for populated areas. Victor Davis Hanson explains it very well.

As France Does - Not

Professor Krugman explained last week that France is superior to the US because it has higher unemployment rate, slower growth and lower income per capita. Oringinal Source. Now you might ask why is it better to be poorer? Because the French are working less they have more time to be with their families. Krugman slants his data and argument against the United States in every column. So we have our designated Krugman fisker - Don Luskin. Luskin examines in National Review the differences and finds - the average Frenchman has lower disposable income than an American at the poverty line!! - Its average real GDP growth since 1991 has been 1.8% per year, compared to 3.1% for the United States. - Its GDP per capita is lower than all but the poorest four U.S. states — lower even than Alabama, a state Krugman nastily described the week before last as being populated by people too poorly educated to work in automobile factories.

In the meantime, Krugman rationalizes it away as a matter of "family values" — deliberately mocking the slogan of some American conservatives. He says members of the typical "French family are compensated for their lower income with much more time together," and that France is "extremely supportive of the family as an institution." Let's talk about that "lower income." Krugman Truth Squad member Bruce Bartlett points to a report by the European consulting firm Timbro that found that total private consumption per capita in France is about half that of the U.S. The average French family has a lower standard of living than Americans living below the poverty level. Impoverished Americans have 16% more dwelling space per capita than the average French; the American poor are more likely to have a car, a dishwasher, a microwave oven, a personal computer, and a clothes drier. So now we know what French families are doing with all that extra time together — they're crouching in cramped living quarters doing household labor.

At Discovery Institute Brett Swanson finds 2004 economics Nobel laureate Ed Prescott is bullish on Europe. Not because Europe is doing well, but because things are so bad that they have to get better! And the reason: the problem is high taxes and it can be fixed, if they have desire to:

Spain offers a good case for European optimism. Like many of its continental neighbors, Spain was afflicted with declining labor force participation through the mid-1990s. Let's pause here to look at some facts. From 1993-96, the average hours worked (per working age person, per week) in Spain was 16.5. This compares with 17.5 hours in France and 19.3 in Germany. Clearly, Spain wasn't working. Then, in 1998, Spain flattened its tax rate in a manner similar to the U.S. tax reforms of 1986. Coupled with labor market reforms of the previous year, Spain's labor force participation increased about 21% in the period 2000-2003, to 20 hours per week, exceeding that of Germany (18.3) and France (17.8). Correspondingly, this increase in labor participation led to increased tax revenues. (Incidentally, Spain, France and Germany all had slightly higher labor force participation rates than the U.S. in the early 1970s, when European tax rates were more in line with those in the U.S.)

But France will follow Krugman and be proud of their proverty. I hope not.

Election Progress

There is slow action on cleaning the Washington election mess. No. Sam Reed is not doing anything that makes things better. He is too busy defending his past failures. Thanks to Stefan Sharkanski at Sound Politics it appears that Norm Maleng overcame his terminal stiction* and moved slightly. King County is prosecuting 4 people who voted twice and 2 have already plead guilty. Seattle Times But Maleng won't go any farther. He needs Bob Williams to do his work. So Evergreen Freedom Foundation is doing what they can do; they are suing 9th Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Betty B. Fletcher for illegally registering to vote where she does not live. She registered downtown where she works. It is a felony to make a false statement when registering to vote. The law is RCW 29A.84.130 Evergreen Freedom Foundation

Clowns

Don't take him seriously and Rep. Jim Moeller, (D) Vancouver, won't take the election seriously. He earns the "Dumb E-mail from Elected Official" award. Stefan has his letter to Bob Williams for your entertainment at Sound Politics * Stiction - resting friction that make it hard to get moving. Webopedia Computer Dictionay

Wahhabi War of the Worlds Comes to Seattle

"only the United States today has a Muslim community from which pluralism in leadership and theology is lacking. This is not an exaggeration or a joke. Every other Muslim community in the world is divided between jihadists and antijihadists. Apologists for religio-ideological aggression -- Islamofascism -- now enjoy predominance only in American Islam." The Saudi Wahabi form of Islam is extreme; ask any Moslem. There are non-Wahabi Muslims in the US, but they are dominated by the extremists. How is Seattle involved? Stephen Schwartz has the story on Tech Central Station

A microcosm of the Wahhabi War of the Worlds was seen in the Emerald City on July 23, when one of the preeminent Iraqi Shia clerics in America, Sayed Mustafa al-Qazwini, Imam of the Islamic Educational Center of Orange County, California, stopped for afternoon prayer at the Idriss Mosque, located at 1420 NE Northgate Way in Seattle. Idris in Arabic is the name of a Prophet, but considering the behavior that occurred there recently it might better be called Iblis or the Devil's Mosque. For when Sayed Mustafa al-Qazwini appeared at the sacred house to pray on American soil, he was rudely insulted and ordered to leave by two Wahhabi thugs, identified as an Algerian and Egyptian, who called him an "unbeliever" because he is a Shia Muslim!

He continues...

The abuse directed at Sayed Mustafa al-Qazwini embodies an irony, in that on July 28 the so-called Fiqh Council of North America, a section of the Wahhabi lobby concerned with Islamic legal doctrine, issued a widely-advertised fatwa against terror. The apparent purpose of the fatwa was to reassure non-Muslim Americans about the peaceful nature of Islam. The real aim was diversionary -- to provide cover for the Wahhabi lobby while it continues to accommodate the ideology that promotes extremism throughout the Sunni community.

So the peaceful members of "a religion of peace" are overrun and controlled by the violent Wahhabi Jihadi extremists. The article has much more. Update. Brag. The talk radio shows picked this up on Monday. You saw it here early Saturday afternoon.

Back from St. Louis

I just got back from a business trip to St. Louis, Missouri for a company technical conference. The Gateway Arch is great. It is an engineering marvel, completed in 1966. It is very impressive. For us Seattleites, compare it to the Space Needle. The top of the Arch is 630 feet high. The opening is 600 feet high, so the Space Needle would fit under it!! The Space Needle claims to be 600 feet high, but it's just a tiny tower on the top that reaches 600; the building is about 590. At its base is a small national park, Jefferson National Expansion Memorial Park. St. Louis has a single-line light rail. MetroLink -- MetroLink. And theirs actually goes to the airport. So many cities talk about serving their airport by rail, but few actually do it. St. Louis has a large, beautiful, in-city park. Forest Park Other major draws - the Mississippi River is the east border of the city and downtown. The confluence of the Missouri River is just out of town to the north. Barge traffic on the Mississippi is ever present. And it is a huge hub for rail traffic. They are very, very big on the St. Louis Cardinals baseball team and the Rams football team. And, sad to say, gambling has a large presence at the focal point of the city - the riverfront. Editorial: gambling is a lie. Its premise is: You can be a winner, not a sucker. You can enjoy a life of leisure while other people work. The sucker will work while you, the winner, go from resort to resort. Our State of Washington takes out ads on radio and TV telling people not to work. This is especially stupid for the state to do. The State depends on people working and producing, but it takes out ads against its interest. Well, it has a short-term interest in people buying state lottery tickets. But success at selling lottery tickets injures the state in the long run.

Zimbabwe chooses China

Robert Mugabe kicked out the productive farmers because they were white. But he didn't give the land to farmers, but to his cronies. So Zimbabwe that used to export food, especially when it was Rhodesia under colonialism, is now starving. Western countries are willing to give aid, but they expect Mugabe to do things he can't do, like have elections or stop killing his own people. But Mugabe has found a country that likes him as he is - the Communists of China. This New York Times/International Herald-Tribune article is a lesson in avoiding the real issues. The reporter blandly covers the friendship of China and Mugabe without managing to mention the murderous actions of Mugabe. Rather than mention what Mugabe did, he is interested in the blue tiles on the roof of Mugabe's 25-bedroom $13,000,000 palace. To Michael Wines Mugabe is a "canny autocrat," not the known killer of his own people. Highlight: the people of Zimbabwe find the influx of China-made goods to be substandard. Their term for the problem: "zhong-zhong." For Mugabe the highlight is "... Atop the list is for China to train Zimbabweans in managing prisons.

"They have a fairly advanced prison system," Zimbabwe's minister of justice, Patrick Chinamasa said. "We would like to tap into their expertise."

Yes, China's prison system is world reknowned for imprisoning and torturing political opponents. Mugabe can learn from the Chinese Communists.

My Apple email is broken

I use Apple's .mac for email. But I haven't been able to receive mail since Friday. Apple's suppot is nonexistent. I use pair.com for web hosting at a very reasonable cost. If I have a problem with my account I send pair email and they respond. Apple has no way to handle an individual problem. Oh, they have help files that tell how to hook up to your server. But I am OK there. If you send me email you will get it thrown back at you with "mailbox is full." Yes, it had two 5 MB emails in it; it deleted them. But it is still broken. (I can view all my mail folders and send mail.) BTW, this is not a free account. I pay for my email account; I also get online backup and I can keep my address book and calendar online with automatic synchronizing. But I can stop paying Apple and just use pair.com if Apple won't support me. Another offline weekend. I might have to get my own access at our cabin. But it was beautiful weather.

Attack on Roberts

President Bush's nominee for Supreme Court Judge John Roberts is respected throughout the legal profession. He is the top star among attorneys who argued cases before the Supreme Court. When he was nominated for the 5th Circuit Court (Washington, DC) the vote in committee was 14 to 3 and on the floor it was unanimous - unanimous. So why would esteemed Senator Schumer oppose him? Because he is not an extreme liberal. On what basis could not-esteemed Senator Patrick Leahy oppose him? None. So they have to cook something up. Hugh Hewitt is my favorite source for the legal system - law prof and supreme talk radio host. He says they will (1)Ask question that they know he shouldn't ask, then oppose him for being nonresponsive. Clinton nominee Ruth Ginsberg didn't answer questions about court decisions and the Republicans didn't complain; most of them voted for her. But no, "this is different" - esteemed Ted Kennedy. (2) His dirty secret: he is a Catholic, like tens of millions of Americans. So he has "deeply held beliefs." They will oppose him for this? Yes, they have nothing else. (3) Get silly. Hewitt:

It is going to get ugly, and how ugly depends upon how desperate the left is, and it looks pretty desperate. Charmaine Yost's post here makes me think there is no bottom to the left's lows.

So don't get too worried. Watch what they do and remember that the people who know his work honor him without exception.

Race-based government for Hawaii gets closer

There is action this week in the Congress to establish a race-based government in Hawaii -- "the Akaka bill." Today it is being held by one senator, but action is expected. This bill breaks the agreements made at Hawaii's statehood and changes the law to treat native Hawaiians as Indians. Opponents say that in the statehood agreement the federal government gave Hawaii 2.5 million acres to give to/use for the Hawaii natives. But it was not to be another Indian reservation; the state had flexibility. But the state has done little with the land. And this would return the land to federal control. Strange. And it is race-based. It breaks out the people of Hawaii according to race and gives privileges only to those of one race. There are Hawaiians of other races with ancestors who were in Hawaii when Hawaii acceded to the US. Why don't the Caucasian and Japanese Americans get the same privileges? Race. As much as I love Hawaii, I wish I had studied this development more thoroughly. The Republican Governor Linda Lingle is working hard for it. But why? On principle? Or does she have higher ambitions? Senator Kyl's (Arizona) objections Hawaii Reporter
Stop Akaka.com

Bio Future or Boondoggle?

There is unlimited energy bombarding earth from the Sun. It's just a matter of how we capture it and put it to use - hydroelectric from water running down; growing wood; solarvoltaic are available immediately. Coal, oil and natural gas take longer. We won't run out of energy until the Sun burns out in about 9 billion years. But we have to find new ways of converting that energy so we can use it. Seattle Biodiesel is a leader at making diesel fuel from plant oils, the Seattle Times reports. They sell to several wholesalers and the retailer Dr. Dan's Alternative Fuel Werks in Ballard (Seattle). SB produces 4,000 gallons per day and sells out every day.

Customers find it very "self-empowering" to reduce the impact on global warming and that "they don't have to support foreign oil," Freeman said. He claimed Seattle has more biodiesel customers per capita than any other city in the United States.

And the new owner software entrepreneur Martin Tobias says he is an addict.

"We have to deal with corrupt and horrible countries because of this heroin dependency on fuel that we have," he said. "Here we are a drug addict."

Does it make economic sense? It takes 7.3 pounds of soy beans to make one gallon of biodiesel. The soy costs 20 cents per pound, which makes it $1.46 of soy for one gallon. Diesel is now selling for $2.59. The costs of production and distribution make it unprofitable with the current economics. There is a federal subsidy as well. Tobias intends to bring costs down by scaling up.

"You can't do it on an economic basis without a government subsidy," said Bruce Finlayson, a chemical-engineering professor at the University of Washington. "That needs to be there if we're going to have biodiesel."

As well as reducing production costs Tobais hope to develop better plants - the ones that grow - that produce more oil for a better price. I hope he will succeed. Without the subsidies.

Wilson says Plame not covert

I sent this letter to the editor of the Seattle Times this morning:

From: ron_lfp@mac.com Subject: Headline error on Wilson story Date: July 17, 2005 7:24:24 AM PDT To: opinion@seattletimes.com Editor, Seattle Times, Valerie Plame was not a covert operative for the CIA when Bob Novak told Karl Rove his name. Your Friday headline is in error. The Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News on July 17 says that Wilson said so this week:

The icing on the cake was Wilson's own admission, made Thursday, that "My wife was not a clandestine officer the day that Bob Novak blew her identity."

We have known for a long time that Plame was working a desk job, driving to the office every day. Now Wilson himself admitted it. Ron Hebron

First: The Seattle Times is still repeating the fiction that Karl Rove blew the cover of CIA agent Valerie Plame. They know it's not true. They seem to think that repeating it will make it so. Second: Rove didn't blow her cover. He heard her name from journalist Bob Novak. There are emails that establish this. Third: Bob Novak's publisher notified the CIA that he was going to publish Plame's name. The CIA did not object. If she were covert they would certainly have objected. What's the big deal about this? Only one thing: the Dems thought they could blow out Rove and "everyone knows" that Rove is Bush's brain and he can do nothing without Rove. There's no coon up the tree they barked at all night. And the Seattle Times is playing their part on the team. They are knowingly printing false headlines. Tip to Lucianne.com Update. On Sunday the Seattle Times first downgrades their verbiage, then upgrades it, but doesn't correct their errors. Rove "was part of the conversations that outed a covert CIA official..." That's an improvement. Now the fall back. "Somebody else ought to be assessing Rove's ability to handle classified information." What? Bob Novak told Rove that Wilson's wife recommended Wilson for the Niger investigation. That's not handling classified information and it's not mishandling classified information. Classified information wasn't involved. But the charge is serious. We have seen when Demos make an unfounded charge against a political enemy it just matters that the charges are serious. Not that there is no evidence. Also. Now the Democrats care about the CIA? They have been trying to make it ineffective for 40 years. In the past year Senator Kerry has blown the cover of a covert agent. They don't care about our intelligence services.

Land ungrab in Wa, DC

President Bush proposes the federal government give land to the city of Washington, DC. 200 acres, mostly waterfront. This would produce tax revenues for the city. I support the resources being controlled by the people involved. Though in the case of DC there is a history of the city government being involved only in corruption. Still, the principle stands. Washington Post Will the Democrats oppose this opportunity to revitalize our capital? They seem to always oppose local control.

Ireland is the 2d richest in Europe

Ireland was one of the poorest countries in Europe, well known for the 19th Century potato famine and emigration to America, tragic poets and murderous civil wars. But Ireland made a change of direction starting in the lake 1960s. Thomas Friedman reports in the International Herald Tribune

... the government made secondary education free, enabling a lot more working-class kids to get a high school or technical degree. As a result, when Ireland joined the EU in 1973, it was able to draw on a much more educated work force.   By the mid-1980s, though, Ireland had reaped the initial benefits of EU membership - subsidies to build better infrastructure and a big market to sell into. But it still did not have enough competitive products to sell, because of years of protectionism and fiscal mismanagement. The country was going broke, and most college grads were emigrating.

They were still on the line.

"We went on a borrowing, spending and taxing spree, and that nearly drove us under," said Deputy Prime Minister Mary Harney. "It was because we nearly went under that we got the courage to change." And change Ireland did. In a quite unusual development, the government, the main trade unions, farmers and industrialists came together and agreed on a program of fiscal austerity, slashing corporate taxes to 12.5 percent, far below the rest of Europe, moderating wages and prices, and aggressively courting foreign investment. In 1996, Ireland made college education basically free, creating an even more educated work force.

The results have been phenomenal.

Today, 9 out of 10 of the world's top pharmaceutical companies have operations here, as do 16 of the top 20 medical device companies and 7 out of the top 10 software designers. Last year, Ireland got more foreign direct investment from America than from China. And overall government tax receipts are way up.   "We set up in Ireland in 1990," Michael Dell, founder of Dell Computer, explained to me via e-mail. "What attracted us? (A) well-educated work force - and good universities close by. (Also,) Ireland has an industrial and tax policy which is consistently very supportive of businesses, independent of which political party is in power. I believe this is because there are enough people who remember the very bad times to de-politicize economic development. (Ireland) also has very good transportation and logistics and a good location - easy to move products to major markets in Europe quickly."   Finally, added Dell, "they're competitive, want to succeed, hungry and know how to win.

An educated work force. Cooperation among owners, labor unions and farmers on economic policy that encourages foreign investment. Low taxes that are simple and transparent.

"It wasn't a miracle, we didn't find gold," said Mary Harney. "It was the right domestic policies and embracing globalization."

Reducing Washington's Health Care Costs

The State of Washington has high health care costs. Particularly because the State has many requirements on what health insurance plans must offer; each additional requirement narrows what health care providers can do and together they raise the costs. In 2003 President Bush signed legislation that creates a new alternative to health insurance - medical savings accounts. An MSA combines a tax-free account to pay for routine medical expenses with an insurance policy for catastrophic health expenses; the insurance is cheap because it has a high deductible, since the account pays for routine expenses. Liv S. Finne of Washington Policy Center authored The How-To Guide to Health Savings Accounts. The full policy brief is 20 pages. There is a 2-page policy note Read the 2-page version to get an overview of what we can do today and some changes that will save Washington State a bundle of money. If you find it valuable then get on their mailing list and send them a donation. WPC does excellent work.

Wilson disclosed his wife

Joseph Wilson disclosed his wife's identity. So she clearly was not a covert agent; she drove to work every day for an office job at the CIA like you and I do. Wilson's online biography disclosed his wife's name. John Podhoretz at the New York Post shows that Karl Rove's motivation was to bring Wilson down to his place, not to out his wife who was not covert anyway. But the LSM is after Rove's head and will continue to repeat the charge that we see disproven. They are irate at Rove because it is his fault that Bush got reelected by 3,000,000 votes over John Kerry. They will repeat it until everyone "knows" it is true.

Aid for Africa?

Offline again. Now the wifi signal shows, but the router must be off. So I had no access for the past four days at the beach. We used the one beautiful day to paint our old tool storage shed. That's OK; we had to get it done. "For God's Sake, Please Stop the Aid!" The Kenyan economics expert James Shikwati, 35, says that aid to Africa does more harm than good. An interview in Der Spiegel:

SPIEGEL: Mr. Shikwati, the G8 summit at Gleneagles is about to beef up the development aid for Africa... Shikwati: ... for God's sake, please just stop. SPIEGEL: Stop? The industrialized nations of the West want to eliminate hunger and poverty. Shikwati: Such intentions have been damaging our continent for the past 40 years. If the industrial nations really want to help the Africans, they should finally terminate this awful aid. The countries that have collected the most development aid are also the ones that are in the worst shape. Despite the billions that have poured in to Africa, the continent remains poor. SPIEGEL: Do you have an explanation for this paradox? Shikwati: Huge bureaucracies are financed (with the aid money), corruption and complacency are promoted, Africans are taught to be beggars and not to be independent. In addition, development aid weakens the local markets everywhere and dampens the spirit of entrepreneurship that we so desperately need. As absurd as it may sound: Development aid is one of the reasons for Africa's problems. If the West were to cancel these payments, normal Africans wouldn't even notice. Only the functionaries would be hard hit. Which is why they maintain that the world would stop turning without this development aid.

So what can be done?

SPIEGEL: Even in a country like Kenya, people are starving to death each year. Someone has got to help them. Shikwati: But it has to be the Kenyans themselves who help these people. When there's a drought in a region of Kenya, our corrupt politicians reflexively cry out for more help. This call then reaches the United Nations World Food Program -- which is a massive agency of apparatchiks who are in the absurd situation of, on the one hand, being dedicated to the fight against hunger while, on the other hand, being faced with unemployment were hunger actually eliminated. It's only natural that they willingly accept the plea for more help. And it's not uncommon that they demand a little more money than the respective African government originally requested. They then forward that request to their headquarters, and before long, several thousands tons of corn are shipped to Africa ... SPIEGEL: ... corn that predominantly comes from highly-subsidized European and American farmers ... Shikwati: ... and at some point, this corn ends up in the harbor of Mombasa. A portion of the corn often goes directly into the hands of unscrupulous politicians who then pass it on to their own tribe to boost their next election campaign. Another portion of the shipment ends up on the black market where the corn is dumped at extremely low prices. Local farmers may as well put down their hoes right away; no one can compete with the UN's World Food Program. And because the farmers go under in the face of this pressure, Kenya would have no reserves to draw on if there actually were a famine next year. It's a simple but fatal cycle.

So the UN aid causes the local prices to drop to the point that Kenyan farmers cannot compete. The aid kills the indigenous agriculture. And the UN bureaucrats, as much as they care about the starving in Kenya - I am sure they do - the reward structure in the bureaucracy they are in rewards actions that cause more dependency, rather than building up local agriculture toward self sufficiency. Update. Scott Cummins pointed me to Blake Lambert of Kampala, Uganda's "Sub-Saharan African Blues" blog and the following:

Nicky Oppenheimer, chairman of De Beers Group, explains why a hand up is much better than a handout. Here's the core of his argument: "Over the last 50 years, sub-Saharan Africa has received more than $1 trillion worth of aid, or more than $5000 dollars in today's terms for every man, woman and child on the continent. And yet today many African countries are poorer than they were 50 years ago. At the time of independence, many African states had a higher per capita income than much of Southeast Asia. Today, however, more than 300 million Africans are living on less than a dollar a day, while South Korea, to take one example, which was much poorer than many African countries around the time of their independence, is now 37 times richer."

Vacation - Dreams of Iron and Steel

I have been offline and will continue to be. We went north along Puget Sound first - Sunday through Wednesday. Passing through town today. Then we go south, also Puget Sound, until Sunday July 10. I quickly read Dreams of Iron and Steel by Deborah Cadbury.

From Booklist The lengthy subtitle tells the story of this fascinating look at technological triumphs in the nineteenth century. (The book complements a five-part television series scheduled to air in 2004 on the Learning Channel.) Cadbury begins with the story of the largest oceangoing vessel in the history of the world, the Great Eastern, which was envisioned by its creator as "a floating city, majestic by day and a brilliant mirage at night," a ship that would carry 4,000 passengers across the seas. It was a mammoth project with massively disappointing results, but the Great Eastern was indeed a wonder. Other nineteenth-century wonders, such as Hoover Dam, the Panama Canal, and the North American transcontinental railroad, proved more successful, but what all seven wonders have in common is this: they were born of big ideas. The nineteenth century, Cadbury emphasizes, was the dividing line between the old world and the new, between a world that hadn't changed much in centuries and one in which rapid change, especially in technology, would become a way of life. David Pitt Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

After the French spent a fortune trying to build a canal across Panama from the Atlantic to the Pacific - they tried a sea-level route - the Americans took it up. The French were first-class in their engineering and no slouches on management. But the key difference was that the Americans tackled yellow fever which was killing workers by the thousands. And they put in locks and built it about 85 feet above sea level. This is a fascinating book. Every project was incredible. And most still are.

Ethanol folly

We need to find another silver bullet. Ethanol is not it. The US is subsidizing the growing of corn to make ethanol and is providing tax relief of 4.5 cents per gallon. Without these subsidies there would be no market for ethanol. Even its producers can't afford to burn it without the governement subsidy. Scientists studying the life cycle of ethanol have found that it takes more energy to produce and use it than it provides - far more. Ethanol is alcohol made from plant material, usually corn. The San Francisco Chronicle reports today that University of California Berkeley geoengineering professor Tad Patzek found that up to six times more energy is used to make ethanol than the finished fuel actually contains.

The fossil energy expended during production alone, he concluded, easily outweighs the consumable energy in the end product. As a result, Patzek believes that those who think using the "green" fuel will reduce fossil fuel consumption are deluding themselves -- and the federal government's practice of subsidizing ethanol by offering tax exemptions to oil refiners who buy it is a waste of money. "People tend to think of ethanol and see an endless cycle: corn is used to produce ethanol, ethanol is burned and gives off carbon dioxide, and corn uses the carbon dioxide as it grows," he said. "But that isn't the case. Fossil fuel actually drives the whole cycle." Patzek's investigation into the energy dynamics of ethanol production began two years ago, when he had the students in his Berkeley freshman seminar calculate the fuel's energy balance as a class exercise. Once the class took into account little-considered inputs like fossil fuels and other energy sources used to extrude alcohol from corn, produce fertilizers and insecticides, transport crops and dispose of wastewater, they determined that ethanol contains 65 percent less usable energy than is consumed in the process of making it. Surprised at the results, Patzek began an exhaustive analysis of his own -- one that painted an even bleaker picture of the ethanol industry's long- term sustainability. "Taking grain apart, fermenting it, distilling it and extruding it uses a lot of fossil energy," he said. "We are grasping at the solution that is by far the least efficient."

Even though Patzek's research was published in a peer-reviewed journal, There are scientists who disagree.

David Morris, an economist and vice president of the Minneapolis-based Institute for Local Self-Reliance, has attacked the Berkeley professor's analysis because he says it is based on farming and production practices that are rapidly becoming obsolete..... Hosein Shapouri, an economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, has also cracked down on Patzek's energy calculations. "It's true that the original ethanol plants in the 1970s went bankrupt. But Patzek doesn't consider the impact new, more efficient production technologies have had on the ethanol industry," he said.

But there are also others who agree:

Cornell University ecology Professor David Pimentel, however, sides with Patzek, calling production of ethanol "subsidized food burning." "The USDA isn't looking at factors like the energy it takes to maintain farm machinery and irrigate fields in their analysis," he said, adding that the agency's ethanol report contains overly optimistic assumptions about the efficiency of farming practices. "The bottom line is that we're using far more energy in making ethanol than we're getting out."

CAFTA: Good for state, nation, Central America

I am very in favor of trade. All parties gain, except for a few vested interests that oppose change and growth. The opponents always frame their interest in nice words of concern for the environment or claiming that third-world people aren't happy to work for pay that is low to us, but is double what they can otherwise get. The Tacoma News Tribune discovered a Democrat who favors growth - Congressman Norm Dicks of Tacoma; we old timers recall him as a lineman on the UW Huskies football team that won upsets in the Rose Bowl twice over 40 years ago.

[Dicks] recognizes that enacting CAFTA is the right thing to do, both for the country and for this trade-dependent state. But it is far from clear that he will be joined by enough lawmakers to secure the approval of CAFTA, which would ease trade barriers between the United States and six Central American nations. It would be a shame if the treaty ultimately failed to win approval.... What'’s deceptive and disingenuous is the way the arguments against CAFTA are being couched in terms of protecting the very poor workers of Central America. Union leaders and their congressional allies, for example, complain about the fact that the treaty doesn'’t guarantee Central Americans the right to organize. Actually, CAFTA is probably the single best thing this country could do for those workers. If markets were to expand for Central American goods, Central American labor would be worth more, paid more and treated better. Workers would gain more leverage and find it easier to unionize if their employers persisted in exploiting and abusing them.... As Dicks understands, Washington has a big stake in free trade, in Latin America and elsewhere. At least one in four jobs in this state is tied to international trade. Washington farmers and software manufacturers especially stand to gain from free and fair access to Central American markets. But the national payoff transcends commerce. This country'’s poverty-stricken, Central American neighbors have long been opportune targets for anti-yanqui demagogues. The United States has a vital interest in helping build a prosperous Central America that views it as a valuable trading partner. Looking at Dicks' anti-CAFTA colleagues, you have to wonder: Is it really that hard to vote the interests of our state and nation?

I agree!

Democrats prefer Guantanamo

The two Demo US senators actually went to the US prison camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, instead of just talking about it. Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon and Ben Nelson of Nebraska changed their minds after seeing the evidence. Washington Times They say the condictions are excellent - no abuse. And it is preferable to keep prisoners there rather than send them to other nations for interrogation. Let's see how the evidence affects Dick Durbin and Nancy Pelosi.

Government Taking Property - Washington State

The US Supreme Court made a decision this week that extended the Constitution and shrunk our property rights. No longer does "for public use" mean for public use. It now means for public or private use. The constitutional protection against the government taking our property has limited the government to taking property for public use. We all understand that that means for a street or other public right of way or building. But cities discovered that they could get more tax revenue by taking homes to make a large parcel of land for a major retailer. But that's taking the land to sell it to a private company. Unconstitutional. Until this week. I have heard several places that Washington is one of the few states that has stronger wording in our constitution and so we will be protected from this decision. That sounds good to law professors who look at our laws and constitution from the distance. But here we see a history of ignoring the constitution so the powerful can do what they want. The Washington Supreme Court hasn't been limited by the Washington Constitution any more than the US SC seems to be. I thought I remembered a recent case here on this very point. But after doing some research it was a different point of law, but still of great concern. In the 1998 time frame in downtown Seattle a new shopping complex was being developed - Pacific Place. The city of Seattle bought the parking garage and gave it to the developer - taking tax revenue and giving it to a private party. That's also a violation of our WA Constitution. OK, I looked for it and couldn't find it - this is my memory. And a giveaway of $50 million wasn't enough for then-mayor Norm Rice. The city paid $73 million even though it had just been built at a cost of $50; Rice threw away another $23 million. I bet he made some friends for life by that give away of public funds. The state Attorney General investigated and found this to be OK, despite violating the wording of the Constitution. Then the state Auditor Brian Sontag also OKed it. And they cited WA Supreme Court decisions on the Mariners' baseball stadium and something else. So I accept small consolation in knowing that our state constitution has the right words. Power talks in this state. Update 6/26. The Castle Coalition is an organization that is publicizing eminent domain takings by governments and how to fight one.

Favorite Places - Key Peninsula

My blogging friend Matt Rosenberg has featured the Key Peninsula twice now. It is a quiet place in south Puget Sound, Washington. But aren't all peninsulas quiet? After all, a peninsula is by definition a dead end and you don't pass through a dead end on the way to anywhere - unless there is a bridge off of it. The Key has two state parks. Penrose Point's shoreline seems more interesting to me. But Joemma Beach SP has 3,000 feet of shoreline, which is much longer. Don't walk past the "private property - no trespassing" signs. But if you do the beach continues another half mile and is very, very quiet. The Seattle P-I archive has a short feature article that focuses on an apple press and a B&B. I discovered the Key by going to a YMCA camp with our first daughter. Then the Presbyterians bought a camp there and my wife volunteered to work in the kitchen for 3 weeks one summer. Old impression: while she and our 3 young kids were there I went home to work and returned the following weekend. As I drove down the Key Highway around noon on Saturday I met my wife driving the other way (taking teenage volunteers for ice cream) and she stopped at a place with no place to pull over. I stopped and talked to her, but I was continuously checking the highway both ways for the traffic we were blocking. But we weren't blocking anyone. This was farther south, past Longbranch and the main highway had no traffic! It's not a cultural center, just country. There is a decent restored small hotel - B&B size. But no pack of artists, or anything. The big features are the beaches with park access. The largest town is Key Center. It has a first-class restorer of old stoves; but he is retiring and closing shop. Smaller, but more interesting is Home. It has a grid of streets, accessible, but rocky beach, two stores, restaurant, Laundromat, auto repair. But its Post Office is named "Lake Bay." What other town has the wrong name on its Post Office? Home started as some sort of a commune; the story I have heard is that the Postal authorities refused honor to the anti-establishment communal people by putting their name on an official Post Office. Google map. Your field of view depends on the size of your monitor. Click on "satellite" in the upper right for a dynamite satellite photo. The island on the left is Herron Island; it has on the order of 200 vacation homes on it and a private car ferry. To the lower right are McNeil Island and Anderson Island - a state ferry serves both. Strangely, the towns are not labeled on this map. Home is just NW of Penrose Point State Park on an inlet. Key Center - you have to scroll up and it's east of Vaughn Bay, close to a small inlet, Glen Cove. And Longbranch is no longer a town - the restaurant and store closed - it's on Filucy Bay. We sail our tiny boat in Case Inlet south of Herron Island. Update. Much better aerial photos. The Washington Dept of Ecology has low-level aerial photos of the shoreline done when the sunlight is low enough to add perspective. On these maps click on a red circle to explore the shoreline at that spot. West map - Key Peninsula is the land to the right. Joemme Beach State Park shows.East map - It's on the left here. Penrose Point State Park is not identified; it is the narrow spit above Delano Beach.

Politicians committing politics - Public Funding for Broadcasting

The Seattle Times editors today discovered politicians involved in politics. Shock! They discovered that President Bush appointed his own person to oversee the pork that goes to public broadcasting through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. There was never a problem before because only the Democrats did this. In their stumbling they discover the solution to the problem:

Times have changed since 1967, when Congress birthed public broadcasting. Then, the push was for an alternative to the three commercial television networks. But it was also to take "creative risks" and to serve underserved populations, including minorities and children. Now, with the proliferation of cable TV channels, the need for diversity is not so great. Even some liberal Democrats, such as Rep. David Obey of Wisconsin, are suggesting public broadcasting is not providing the cutting-edge programming it was intended to provide and looks more and more like commercial television.

It's clear: cut the funding. But they miss it and continue searching for Republican boogeymen. The editors pretend that funding from the politicians in Congress doesn't involve politics. And if taxpayer funding for broadcasting is a life-or-death necessity, then don't newspapers also need public funding? Then the politicians can have (a more direct) say in what the Seattle Times prints.

Stagnant Europe

Another off-line weekend. It looks like I lost my weekend internet connection. I am interested in why one economy flourishes while another goes stale. There is a stark picture today. The US for all our faults keeps growing, sometimes faster, sometimes slower, but growing. But Europe has had little growth in a decade. Policies intended to increase employment cause bureaucratic rigidity and result in worse unemployment. For example, France instituted a 35-hour work week in 1999 or 2000, claiming that the shorter work week will cause employers to hire more people. It was one more restriction on the contract between employers and their workers and resulted in more unemployment. Paul Johnson, the British historian, in the Wall Street Journal on June 17 looks at what is wrong with Europe. This email link might work. Normally a subscription is required.

That Europe as an entity is sick and the European Union as an institution is in disorder cannot be denied. But no remedies currently being discussed can possibly remedy matters. What ought to depress partisans of European unity in the aftermath of the rejection of its proposed constitution by France and the Netherlands is not so much the foundering of this ridiculous document as the response of the leadership to the crisis, especially in France and Germany. Jacques Chirac reacted by appointing as prime minister Dominque de Villepin, a frivolous playboy who has never been elected to anything and is best known for his view that Napoleon should have won the Battle of Waterloo and continued to rule Europe. Gerhard Schröder of Germany simply stepped up his anti-American rhetoric. What is notoriously evident among the EU elite is not just a lack of intellectual power but an obstinacy and blindness bordering on imbecility. As the great pan-European poet Schiller put it: "There is a kind of stupidity with which even the Gods struggle in vain."

I can't improve on Johnson. His remedy has three parts.

First, it has tried to do too much, too quickly and in too much detail. Jean Monnet, architect of the Coal-Steel Pool, the original blueprint for the EU, always said: "Avoid bureaucracy. Guide, do not dictate. Minimal rules." ....

But...

In fact, for an entire generation, the EU has gone in the opposite direction and created a totalitarian monster of its own, spewing out regulations literally by the million and invading every corner of economic and social life. The results have been dire: An immense bureaucracy in Brussels, each department of which is cloned in all the member capitals. A huge budget, masking unprecedented corruption, so that it has never yet been passed by auditors, and which is now a source of venom among taxpayers from the countries which pay more than they receive.

They are trying to impose "The one, best way" on every country.

This, as it turns out, is actually the perfect formula for stagnation. What makes the capitalist system work, what keeps economies dynamic, is precisely nonconformity, the new, the unusual, the eccentric, the egregious, the innovative, springing from the inexhaustible inventiveness of human nature. Capitalism thrives on the absence of rules or the ability to circumvent them. Hence it is not surprising that Europe, which grew rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s, before the EU got going, has slowly lost pace since Brussels took over its direction and imposed convergence. It is now stagnant. Growth rates of over 2% are rare, except in Britain, which was Thatcherized in the 1980s and has since followed the American model of free markets.

Second...

There is another still more fundamental factor in the EU malaise. Europe has turned its back not only on the U.S. and the future of capitalism, but also on its own historic past. Europe was essentially a creation of the marriage between Greco-Roman culture and Christianity. Brussels has, in effect, repudiated both. There was no mention of Europe's Christian origins in the ill-fated Constitution, and Europe's Strasbourg Parliament has insisted that a practicing Catholic cannot hold office as the EU Justice Commissioner.

And...

Equally, what strikes the observer about the actual workings of Brussels is the stifling, insufferable materialism of their outlook. The last Continental statesman who grasped the historical and cultural context of European unity was Charles de Gaulle. He wanted "the Europe of the Fatherlands (L'Europe des patries)" and at one of his press conferences I recall him referring to "L'Europe de Dante, de Goethe et de Chateaubriand." I interrupted: "Et de Shakespeare, mon General?" He agreed: "Oui! Shakespeare aussi!" No leading member of the EU elite would use such language today. The EU has no intellectual content. Great writers have no role to play in it, even indirectly, nor have great thinkers or scientists. It is not the Europe of Aquinas, Luther or Calvin -- or the Europe of Galileo, Newton and Einstein. Half a century ago, Robert Schumann, first of the founding fathers, often referred in his speeches to Kant and St. Thomas More, Dante and the poet Paul Valery. To him -- he said explicitly -- building Europe was a "great moral issue." He spoke of "the Soul of Europe." Such thoughts and expressions strike no chord in Brussels today. In short, the EU is not a living body, with a mind and spirit and animating soul. And unless it finds such nonmaterial but essential dimensions, it will soon be a dead body, the symbolic corpse of a dying continent.

U of W Medical doesn't learn from crime and penalty

The University of Washington Medical School harbored felons on their faculty for several years and paid for it. And there is more evidence this week that they learned little from the experience. Dean Paul Ramsey ignored two audits in 1996 and 97 (he was department head then) that indicated there was massive fraud in billing - in 13 departments under him. Two years later it was only reported because a whistleblower blew the whistle! Ramsey ignored the problems in his area of control:

In 1998, Ramsey received a letter from a UW doctor pointedly warning him that physicians were falsifying Medicare bills. Ramsey ordered an investigation that found no wrongdoing, although a written report wasn't produced until after the criminal investigation began in late 1999.

And Ramsey's coverup continues. Yesterday's Seattle Times story is based on reviewing the original audits. How is Ramsey now involved? Actually, I don't know if the current coverup is by him or higher up, but they are still working at it:

The audits, kept secret since 1997, were obtained by The Seattle Times last week under a public-disclosure request. The university initially denied the request, citing attorney-client privilege because a law firm was involved in arranging the audits.

Fortunately new UW President Mark Emmert reversed the decision. This story doesn't remind us of the fact that "... Dr. H. Richard Winn, a neurosurgeon, pleaded guilty to obstructing a federal investigation and resigned with a $3.7 million separation agreement." I wish reporter Sharon Plan Chan or her editor would link to her own previous stories. The UW paid the federal government a $35 million penalty last spring. June 20, 2004 Why is Dean Paul Ramsey still on the job? He oversaw the crimes; his investigation didn't find anything; he ignored warnings; he covered up; he gave the felon $3.7 million and caused a penalty of $35 million. Accountability isn't expected, we can plainly see. And the money? It doesn't seem to matter... After all, it's our money that's paid. Money is of small consequence to the UW Medical School dean. He goes to the Legislature and gets our tax dollars. Oh, is Ramsey affected by this? Private donations to the UW were down 35 per cent last year. Would you give the U of W Medical School your hard-earned money?

Blue City Conservatives

Seattle's liberals and "progressives" need to grow up. Seattle's conservatives need to speak up. So far, the latter looks more likely. And what follows could prove worrisome for local Democrats. Their grip on Seattle politics might loosen considerably over the next decade. Especially if a low-key GOP marketing campaign now under way in Seattle helps more Republicans and others who vote for them to brave the tangible social risks of "coming out."

My friend Matt Rosenberg has an article in this week's Seattle Weekly about the resurgence of Republicans in Seattle.

Moderate Republicans, of course, were once a strong presence in Seattle, through the 1960s and into the '70s. Their exemplar was Dan Evans, who rose from 43rd District state representative to governor, then U.S. senator. During those years, a host of other Seattle Republicans served in Olympia, on the City Council, and even in the mayor's office. But Republicans largely faded from relevance in Seattle....

Matt has profiles of several Seattle Republicans. Read it.

Nickels pushing Kyoto treaty?

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels this weekend is at U.S. Conference of Mayors, which represents 1,183 cities, trying to get the Kyoto Treaty passed. This is like looking for lost keys under the street light instead of where they were lost. The place for the Kyoto Treaty is in the US Senate. Get it passed there, then it will have effect on the US. What can he accomplish with the mayors? PR. Lots of talk and committees. Scanning the article looking for what it would mean for the city of Omak, Washington, to adopt Kyoto all I found was:

The hope, Mote said, is that Kyoto would lead to heightened awareness and more countries agreeing to cut more emissions.

So Omak, Washington, would cause more countries to cut emmisions. And people observe that Seattle is in an ideal situation to favor cutting burning coal to cut CO2 emmissions.

Critics say it doesn't take much courage for Nickels to take a pro-Kyoto stand. For starters, Seattle can increase its population and job base in a greener way than most cities because its electricity comes from a city-owned utility that draws most of its energy from clean water power. "The only reason they can do any of this is because we dammed the rivers for hydropower. Otherwise the city would be burning a lot more stuff for power," said Eugene Wasserman, president of the North Seattle Industrial Association. Wasserman sees Nickels' climate initiative as a political stunt.

And Al Gore shows evidence for the political stunt theory. Gore Urges Mayors to Fight Global Warming Seattle already passed Kyoto targets in 2001. A Seattle press release shows narrow progress

City government has already cut its corporate emissions more than 60 percent compared to 1990 levels, but Kyoto aims for a 5 percent reduction for the entire community.

But after four years Nickels is talking about action:

“By making smart choices like building sustainable buildings, replacing old vehicles with a ‘Clean and Green’ fleet, and setting strict ‘no-net-emissions’ goals for Seattle City Light, the City has shown we can take local action on global problems,” said Nickels. In order to ensure Seattle meets these goals, the Mayor also announced the creation of a Green Ribbon Commission on Climate Protection. .... Emissions are only one part of the mayor’s annual Environmental Action Agenda, which was also released today. ... Other items include: A call for other local governments and businesses to join Seattle ’s strong support for the legislature to pass the “Clean Car” standards this year. An Executive Order that directs City departments to reduce their use of paper by 30 percent by the end of 2006; The inclusion of global-warming pollution reduction as a factor in awarding Neighborhood Matching Grants; The creation of a community action guide on climate protection; Explore the increased use of climate-friendly construction materials in City projects

That sounds like it will keep the meeting rooms at city hall busy without doing much damage to Seattle's business climate.

Hybrid cars with $10 gas

I see that I have been visiting every topic but economic freedom and growth lately. Let's get back. There has been a lot of talk lately about saving the planet by buying a hybrid car. I am glad to see that people have started to buy them. For years no one would. And there is always the claim that you pay more for the car, but save enough in lower gas bills to pay off the addtional cost over the life of the car. But the claim is always assumed, never tested. Edmunds is a company that tracks the prices of cars, tests them, etc. USA Today reports that Edmunds did some cost analysis.

How many miles driving per year and at what gas price is the break-even point - the point where the savings in gas pays for the additional cost of buying the car. They do it for a 5-year ownership and consider taxes, financing, etc.

The reporter leads with a misleading comparison. He compares the light-weight, small Toyota Prius to the larger, more comfortable Toyota Camry. For 15,000 miles per year break-even comes with gas costing $2.14. Yes, the cost is equal, but the cars are definitely not comparable. Instead, the Toyota Corolla is closer to the size of the Prius. How do they compare? For driving 15,000 miles per year the cost of gas has to be $10.10 to reach the break-even point. Or, if you keep the price of gas at the current level, you have to drive 66,500 miles per year. (Will the car survive driving 332,500 miles in 5 years?) The closest comparison came with the Ford Escape smaller SUV and its new hybrid brother. So discount all those empty headlines based on no analysis at all. Don't buy a hybrid unless you expect gas to average over $10 per gallon for the first 5 years you own it.

"If people go in with the idea they are saving money, they are mistaken," says Jesse Toprak, pricing director for Edmunds.com, an auto research site.

Where Bill Is

Can Seattle's best-know resident be seen? Of course Bill Gates lives in Medina and works in Redmond - in the greater Seattle area, not the city. The only time I have seen him was at a national conference held in Seattle. But I was a guest of the sponsors - the math teachers - and I was waiting back stage for the event to start while the speaker, Bill Gates, was 30 feet away going over his presentation. I sat in the second row and got to speak to Bill in front of 1200 people; I asked him a question from the floor. Thursday's Seattle Times has a feature story on where Bill lives and hangs out. Your best bet is the BurgerMaster hamburger drive-in on the north side of highway 520 in Bellevue. Twenty years ago, before Redmond, Microsoft had their campus across the freeway plus the building next door. And Bill is well known for liking a good hamburger. Seattle Times

He who counts the votes makes the rules

In Washington, the state, the judge found that there were 1800 illegal votes cast and it's OK. Apparently for an illegal vote to be overturned the person who cast it has to swear an oath that he cast the vote and he was not entitled to. That's the only way. But what if the person who lied when he cast the vote also lied when asked about it? And there is no penalty for a politician to set up a county's election office to drop so many of the controls required by law that it can't get within 1,000 votes of the audit checks. Stefan Sharkansky at Sound Politics says it is the Josef Stalin rule:

He who counts the votes makes the rules

The gap in the race for governor was 139. It is exceed 13 times by the 1800 illegal votes. 13 times more illegals. But it's OK. The judge says so. He put the burden explicitly on the voters to hold elected officials and elections officials accountable for these problems. So his suggested relief for those who want honest votes: vote out the dishonest politicians who stole the election. Tell us, Judge Bridges, how do we vote them out when they count the votes? Do we pay him to deliver wisdom so deep? Stefan at SoundPolitics.com has done an outstanding job of rooting out the improprieties and spreading the word. Thank you, Stefan.

Amnesty International's Cheap Politics - Updated

From the Chicago Tribune:

By labeling the U.S. anti-terrorism prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, the "gulag of our times," the people of Amnesty International must think we're stupid or ignorant. Stupid or ignorant enough to fall for the assertion that whatever is happening at Guantanamo is the legal and moral equivalent of what happened in the hundreds of slave labor and concentration camps scattered throughout the former communist Soviet Union. Equivalent to a system that brutalized tens of millions, of which untold millions died of starvation, exposure, exhaustion, torture, illness or execution.

Yes, comparing 525 well-fed prisoners to millions of dead and tens of millions of prisoners in brutal conditions in the Gulag of the Soviet Union. Some history:

Washington Post columnist Anne Applebaum, in her Pulitzer-Prize winning book, "Gulag: A History," figures that from 1928 through 1953, about 24 million people passed through the various camps, many in brutal Siberia or other remote regions. That's more than twice Cuba's entire population. Among them were hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of prisoners of World War II. She estimated that 600,000 were Japanese, who were kept in the slave camps for years after the end of the war. Few ever made it home.

But:

Either Amnesty International isn't aware of this history, or it knows of it but is lying for the sake of a good sound bite. In either case, the group has lost credibility to speak on behalf of the victims of human-rights violations. Moreover, Amnesty International has dishonored millions of gulag victims.

Read the whole thing

Update 6/5/05

Amnesty USA Executive Director William Schultz went on Fox News Sunday to deliver a non-defense. His responses were filled with "don't know for sure," "I have no idea," "I have absolutely no idea" and finally:

Asked about the comparison, Schulz said, "Clearly this is not an exact or a literal analogy."

But, of course he goes on to repeat the charge he can't back up. Reuters

The Dishonor and Damage of "Deep Throat"

Deep Throat was the alias of the man who leaked the inside information about the Watergate break in and President Nixon's coverup. Without the information he provided it would have been difficult to bring Nixon down, which was his intention. This week it was disclosed that Mark Felt was the famous leaker at the same time he was at the top of the power structure in the FBI. Felt was deeply dishonest and did a lot of damage. He might not have committed a crime, but he violated the high trust many people had in him. First, and most obvious, he interfered with a criminal investigation. Chuck Colson, Nixon's special counsel, today said "Mark Felt could have stopped Watergate. He was in the position of that kind of influence. Instead, he goes out and basically undermines the administration. I don't think that's honorable at all." Pat Buchanan, who also worked in the White House, agrees and provide's Felt's motive. "It is not honorable in the middle of an investigation to grab material that you’ve dredged up which is supposed to go to the prosecutors who decide who to indict and slip it over to the Washington Post to damage a president in the middle of a campaign. "His motive, as Bob Woodward indicated, was that Mark Felt was passed over when Hoover died and Nixon gave the eulogy and then put L. Patrick Gray, who was very close to the president and was assistant attorney general, in charge of the FBI."

Deep Throat and Genocide

But here is the treat. At The American Spectator Ben Stein lists - in his humorous style - all the positive accomplishments of Richard Nixon.

He ended the war in Vietnam, brought home the POW's, ended the war in the Mideast, opened relations with China, started the first nuclear weapons reduction treaty, saved Eretz Israel's life, started the Environmental Protection Administration... That is his legacy. He was a peacemaker. He was a lying, conniving, covering up peacemaker. He was not a lying, conniving drug addict like JFK, a lying, conniving war starter like LBJ, a lying, conniving seducer like Clinton -- a lying, conniving peacemaker. That is Nixon's kharma.

And the horrible results of ending Nixon's efforts:

1.) The defeat of the South Vietnamese government with decades of death and hardship for the people of Vietnam. 2.) The assumption of power in Cambodia by the bloodiest government of all time, the Khmer Rouge, who killed a third of their own people, often by making children beat their own parents to death. No one doubts RN would never have let this happen.

Yes, Nixon was hard to like and easy to dislike. But he set out to do accomplish improvements in foreign relations and was successful. So Stein calls him a peacemaker. I wouldn't choose that term, but it fits. The damage done by Felt was huge.

FEC Threatens Bloggers

This is real and the time is short. The Federal Election Commission is considering rules that would make it illegal for bloggers to do almost anything about an election. Donate an online ad to a political campaign. Sell an ad to a campaign. Lots more. Learn about it - at FEC.RedState.org Send a letter - to the FEC at internet@fec.gov . And the deadline is June 3. Be sure to include your snail mail address when you write.